What a long, strange trip it's been.

"Suffer in yer jocks, Tone."

So. It ends.

Some thoughts – for the last time – on what it all means, if anything.

First thing, there’s no reason why the current arrangement in the Federal Parliament can’t work and work well. Hung parliaments have lasted substantial terms and delivered good results elsewhere in Australia (including Jules’ home state of Victoria) and if anybody can make it work, it’s the Wonder from Wales.

Second, the suggestion already running in sections of the media that “the arrangement is already under pressure” is complete and utter crap. The independents have made it quite clear that they will only vote for confidence and supply motions; everything else will have to be negotiated on the floor of the House. This will, of course, mean disagreements from time to time – as it should be.

Third, the Liberals will never accept this.

Never.

In their cold, reptilian, brains they are convinced of the utter rightness of their cause and if they can force election after election until the electorate gets it Right – then so be it.

Fourth, ignore all the guff about “legitimacy” or “number of votes”. The long standing convention in this is that the party that can form a majority on the floor of the lower house has the right to form government. That’s it, the end, finish.

And lastly, I have no idea how this will all pan out; it could fall over in three months, it could last three years. Anybody who says they can predict what will happen is a fool and a dick-biscuit.

And the Red Flag is flying once more over Karl Kautsky House.

Thank you.

UPDATE

I know this post is already getting ridiculously unwieldy, but this is too good to ignore

And in particular this passage;

A large proportion of the Coalition vote base believes there is one and only one acceptable outcome in politics – theirs. And it is this zealotry that will explode.

The temptation for the Opposition to continue to exploit this belligerence, as they so successfully did in the lead up to the campaign and in the campaign itself, will be overwhelming. When all that stands between the Opposition and a new election – a new chance at *power* - is one scandal, one stuff up, one member of parliament changing – the attraction of flicking the switch to rhetorical overdrive for effect, and righteous indignation to incite their masses, will simply be too great. No distortion will be too large, no lie too audacious, no accusation too brazen.

And they will be ably assisted and their supporters commercially exploited, by the leadership and opinion section of The Australian – not to mention the curmudgeonly Lesser Scribes infesting the sewer end of the News Ltd tabloids and that growing group of feeble minded cowards at the ABC whom appear to have lost any capacity for intellectual autonomy when it comes to independently assessing the dynamics of Australian politics.

Saturday night.

By gum, that's better!

About 10:30 on Saturday night, I thought “fuck it, I can’t take this anymore” and drove home filled with, not rage but sorrow and regret and anger at the Labor Party smarties who managed to completely fuck-up not just one but two outstanding Labor leaders* and also with that weird flatulence you get from eating too many election day sausages.

When I got home, the house was dark and everybody was sleeping.

I went into The Boy’s bedroom and watched him in his pirate pyjamas; his little chest rising and falling rhythmically.

Then I went to bed and had a long lie in before getting up to a big breakfast of bacon, toast and eggs the next morning.

Everything looks better after a big breakfast of bacon, toast and eggs.

*Here’s 30 cents boys – see if you can find another social democratic government elsewhere to ruin.

It's Politics Slam Friday!

Works for Liberals too.

Well ,the Federal election campaign is in its final leg/quarter/lap/whatever bullshit sporting metaphor the meeja are using these days and despite all the hand wringing about “how boring the campaign was”*, I’ve actually quite enjoyed it.

This is more than I can say above the coverage, both print and electronic, which has been beyond appalling.

The Smage has been obsessed with long, unfunny “colour” pieces and somebody should really tell the bods over at the new 24-hour news channel ABC 24 that journalists interviewing journalists about what another set of journalists said is less than riveting.

Most of the really useful stuff I’ve come across has been from the Internet, with Crikey and Peter Brent’s site Mumble being the standouts.

That said, I still have no freakin’ idea about who’s going to win, but if pressed I’d say a Labor win is more probable than a Liberal win and a hung parliament not probable at all.

If the ALP can minimise its losses in NSW and Queensland, using the advantage of incumbency, and pick up some seats in South Australia and Victoria, then we can look forward to another three years of Ranga Rule.

It may very well be that the Tories will pick up more votes but still have fewer seats.

So there.

Nyerr.

And on a final note, if people want to join me for the local Labor Party election night piss-up, then shoot me a line and you can be entertained by the site of me drinking beer, swearing at the TV and generally carrying on like a lunatic.

Can’t say fairer than that!

* A line the meeja has used about every single freakin’ election since 1980.

Moving past Gotcha.

"Yeah, thanks for taking my question, Tony"

Shaun Carney, the best writer on the Age in my opinion, has an interesting take on the election thus far and I urge you to take a look.

For me, the most telling comment was this one about Jules’ performance on Q&A;

The great strength of Monday night's show lay in the fact that the questions came from voters and did not follow the gaffe-chasing methodologies that embody so much of the media's current approach to politicians. The questions seemed to be put with the goal of eliciting a genuine response, not catching out the interviewee. Gillard managed to be disarming without altogether surrendering her prime ministerial air.

This dumb obsession with the “gotcha” moment by the meeja is making me tear out what’s left of my hair.

Why I won't be voting Green.

" Yeah, yeah, I'm very concerned about global warming"

The other day I ran into the local Green candidate, handing out material outside my local supermarket*, which lead in turn to the following exchange.

Green candidate: “Hello there, interested in voting Green?”

Me: “Not really, thanks.”

Green candidate (surprised): “Why not?”

Me: “I’ve met too many of them.”

Which lead in turn to a polite, short, discussion about my aversion to most things Green, which in turn lead to me thinking why so many passionate, polite, well-educated Greens voters give me the flying shits.

In part, I think, it’s because so many of them have that air of deeply self satisfied, self-righteousness that reminds me of members of a fundamental religion. If you disagree with them, then you’re not just wrong; you’re evil, brainwashed, a spawn of darkness. I had a blazing row with an old mate of mine because I refused to regard Victoria’s desalination plant as “sinister conspiracy to privatize our water”**.

It’s probably just as well that I didn’t tell her that, in my opinion, organic food was over-priced crap, with no good evidence that it’s better for either you or the environment.

The other thing that shits me about the Green is their immovable conviction that they’re somehow spin-free “brave truth tellers”.

Are they bollocks!

In my experience, the Greens are the biggest spin-merchants around – they’re just better at looking sincere while they do it.

Oh and they voted with the Tories on the Government’s ETS legislation in the Senate.

That should just about do it.

* Although, given my local shopping centre does attract rather more than its fair share of “colourful local identities”, I have to salute her courage.

** Alcohol may have also been involved.

Go the blood nut!

" Thanks for inviting me today Kerry"

Hot tip is that Jules will announce the date of the 2010 Federal election tomorrow (Friday 16th).

Most likely date is last August - probably 28th.

The Party's election slogan will be

That Abbott, he's a shifty cunt isn't he?*.

* Although that may change after the focus groups.**

** But not any focus group I'm a member of.

What?!

It's too early in the morning for me to write a lengthy post about this, and too early for me to really grasp why I am so offended/annoyed by this article.

But I am, so here it is. Discuss away.

Ignore the power of Squib's badges at your peril*.

All praise the Welsh Wonder

It’s Gillard.

Well, yes, I was wrong and I’d like to thank the world for pointing that out to me (even the cat had a supercilious look on her dial this morning).

For the record, I think this was a mistake.

However.

We would have won under Rudd.

We’ll win under Gillard.

I’m still a bit gobsmacked that the caucus could be so easily rattled. I can only assume the internal polling must have been horrendous but still.

Expect an election, probably in October.

*I’m expecting Charles Darwin to make a come back any day now.

That Tony, always kidding around!

"Fetch my pure silk smoking jacket and Cuban cigars , this instant!"

The rampaging “Man-bull”, destroyer of utes, smiter of disbelievers, scourge of the incapable is no more, with his decision not to re-contest his electorate at the Commonwealth election later this year.

The Mad Monk, as always, chipped in with the comedy element, as the Age reports;

Mr Abbott was generous in his praise of Mr Turnbull.

"In just two terms, Malcolm has scaled the commanding heights of Australian politics,’’ a statement from Mr Abbott read.

‘‘Malcolm has brought to all his public roles extraordinary determination, considerable personal charisma and great intellectual consistency.

"Personally, I have enjoyed his friendship since university days and look forward to doing so for many years to come."

Which I would translate as “the cunt’s finally gone, has he? You ripper”.

Based on my amazing political skills, my take on the next few years in federal politics is something like this*.

The Kevinator leads the ALP into a second term, with an increased majority. “Jolly Joe” Hockey and the Monk then amuse us all with an endless round of challenge and counter challenge before Ruddy wallops them for a third time sometime in 2013 before standing down and leaving The Gillard to take over.

Commentators usually finish these sort of pieces with some pious platitude about “how good governments depend on effective oppositions” but – you know – fuck that!

*Probably wrong and inaccurate even now, but that’s never stopped anybody in the Gallery.

Fluffy joins the 7:30 Report.

Why won't you answer my question, Mr Abbott?

Despite what you may think, I do have a degree of sympathy for political journos.

Political change within a democracy usually occurs at a glacial pace, often involving small numbers of people talking in stuffy, over-heated rooms or (less frequently) large numbers of people shouting at other people on the streets and dodging the rubber bullets and tear gas.

Unhappily for political journos, it’s more the “small numbers of people talking in stuffy, over-heated rooms” scenario, which makes it hard to write entertaining copy. After all, what self-respecting Chief of Staff or editor is going to be pleased with “In dramatic scenes in Canberra, nothing much happened and the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd had a nice cup of tea and a chocolate biscuit”?

No, far better to bang out the sort of tripe everybody else is writing. It’s easier and after a while you can write guff like “Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is standing by besieged Minister for X after a controversial series of weeks as the opposition blah, blah, blah…” in your sleep – which I believe is Glenn Milne’s preferred way of working.

Case in point.

For weeks, the Gallery has been churning out opinion piece after opinion piece about how the Tony Abbott has the Ruddster “rattled”, about how people are starting to “see through the Rudd Government spin” and endless bilge about “plummeting approval ratings”; based on nothing more than tittle-tattle and idle chat in coffee shops.

The latest Newspoll in today’s Oz has the two party preferred vote for Labor at 52 per cent (coalition at 48) – compared with the November 2007 election of…err…52.7.

Three years of bluster, bullshit and hype has resulted in three quarters of fuck-all.

Alex also asked why isn't Lindsay Tanner treasurer and why Julie Bishop?

There are a number of possible reasons as to why Lindsay Tanner isn’t treasurer, Alex. Swan is from the right and Queensland (like the PM) while Tanner is from the left and Victoria, which may be a factor but I suspect they use Tanner as the political head kicker while leaving Swan as the “calm, sensible voice of reason”.

I think we’re all still scratching our heads about Julie Bishop, though.

Barnaby - A Top Joyce

A left-leaning Barnaby Joyce?

I suspect this is where Labor's focus should be as we move towards the 2010 election.

Fancy Barnaby Joyce not being deemed fit for the job of shadow finance minister.

Who'd have thought it?

From our source in The Lodge.

Mr Abbott tries out his new look before the election.

The scene; Late at night at The Lodge.

The Ruddster is thumbing through a well-read copy of Kant’s Critique of Pure Reason, a snifter of brandy beside him. Abigail the dog is snoring and farting happily in front of the fire while Jasper the cat is tinkering in the corner, putting the final touches to his anti-dog death ray. Suddenly there is a knock on the door and a certain Welsh-born, red-haired Deputy Prime Minister enters with a sheaf of papers.

The Ruddster: “Jules, come in, sit down. Would you like a drink?”

Julia: “Oooh, thanks comrade. I’ve brought the latest from our mole in the Liberal Party. It’s their strategy for the coming Federal election”

The Ruddster: “Good man, that Malcolm.”

He starts reading and looks up at the Deputy PM.

The Ruddster: “Jules, have you read this?”

Julia (trying unsuccessfully to suppress a smirk): “Oh, yes.”

The Ruddster (reading): “Focus on IR…bring back ‘flexibility’ into the system…bash the unions…”

The long silence is broken by gusts of hearty laughter as The Ruddster and Jules stagger around the room, wiping tears from their eyes. Abigail makes a frantic bolt for the door, while Jasper makes a mental note to widen his device to include humans.

Finally the laughter subsides.

The Ruddster: “Oh dear, Tony. He really is the gift that keeps on giving. Another drink, Jules?”

I can't take this gibberish much longer!

For those of you who are bored with politics, here's a photo of a kitten. With a gun. Enjoy!

I was going to write a longer post about the two public opinion polls in the Oz and the Age today, but quite frankly – after the deluge of stupidity this morning from the commentariat – I can’t be arsed.

Quick version – neither of them really mean a pinch of shit, this far out from an election.

Point one. Polls bounce around all the time. Pointing to one poll is a largely meaningless exercise, you have to look at the underlying trend over several months and on that basis neither Kruddy nor Brumby is looking too bad.

Point two. Polls only tell you what people are thinking at the time. As a predictive exercise as to what people maybe thinking several months away, they’re almost useless.

Point three and a prediction. Based on a highly analytical process we pundits call “making shit up” Kruddy will win a handful of seats, Brumby will lose a handful and the Greens will not win any lower house seat in any mainland Australian state. Nichts. Nada. Zip.

Also.

I keep hearing the line “you’re just like heaven to touch” from the song You’re just too good to be true as “I think I’ve broken your clutch”.

Why is that, I wonder?

...and in breaking news

My local MP Martin "Mumbles" Ferguson has sent a note to all Party members, asking for volunteers for the "coming Federal election".

Has Kruddy decided to pull the pin sooner, rather than later?